[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file 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preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer 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[phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 483: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file 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preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/bbcode.php on line 112: preg_replace(): The /e modifier is no longer 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122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file 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line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file 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line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file 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line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file 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line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file 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line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file 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line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file 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line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 124: array_unique() expects parameter 1 to be array, null given [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 126: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file /includes/functions_reimg.php on line 122: preg_match_all(): The /e modifier is no longer supported, use preg_replace_callback instead [phpBB Debug] PHP Warning: in file 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If my local Warhammer contingent is any clue, I dont see the company going anywhere anytime soon. They may make stupid decisions and their minis may be a little more than most (seems everyone else is catching up...) they are still the popular choice at Fire and Sword Hobbies here in Seattle...even with a GW store within driving distance.
Piston Joined: 10-13-2005, 08:23 AM Posts: 448 Location: UK
Their problem is that the mini's are just too expensive now. I remember when you could get a Skeleton army box for £10. Had cavalry, a chariot and about 30 warriors. Now you're lucky if you can get 10 warriors for £15.
It's a shame but they're very popular. Most young gamers can't see past them to the other quality mini's and games out there. My FLGS has even stopped selling other brands as they can't shift them due to GW squeeze on the market.
Going to stop now. Feel a rash of swearing and foaming at the mouth coming on....
Dirigible Joined: 07-23-2003, 07:42 AM Posts: 1336 Location: Chicago, Il
Nice analysis of GW SG!
I agree that very soon GW's gamer market is going to drop out from under them. Walking through one of the LGS' near my house nearly makes me cry at the lead that goes to waste on these 12 year old gamers. I even had a friend who joked that his standard paint job was "submerse mini in paint pot, pull out and leave to dry."
I think that audience is going to jump on AT-43 and Battlefield Evolution, and never look back.
They won't lose their audience. They'll adapt to the market and keep them around. GW has the money to take chances and can easily compete with any other company on the market. If prepainted turns out to be a big moneymaker for other companies then they'll do it too. And make a lot of money. People have been saying on and off for years that GW would go down because of one bad decision or another. They're still around. I don't see that changing any time soon.
I'm certainly not predicting their death as a company. They have too much going for them to topple over completely.
On their plus side:
-Great Minis
-Great Games
-Wide Distribution Network
-Brand Name
-Wide Variety of Products/Games
On the minus side:
-Rising Costs
-Shrinking Market
From their own full year report for their most recent fiscal year, the very first bullet item is "Games Workshop sells the love of a hobby and then nurtures (services) it."
And they've done a great job on that. But I think the market is changing. According to their report, they have been on a downward slide now for two years. Sales have dropped from a high of about 150M (2004) to 115M (for 2006). They have tightened their belts and trimmed things out where they could. They explain away that the slide is partly due to the fact that their third core game (LotR) didn't have another movie come out that would help advertise the game, so sales slumped.
Their report goes on to say that GW "Operates in a unique, separate niche" market, and that "Niches have loyal customers so long as they receive high quality products and services."
But the change in markets here isn't about one car maker coming out with a 6 cylinder so now your 4 cylinder models appear to be under-powered (and you need to come out with your powerhouse 8 cylinder engine pronto)!
That would be the same as a new formulation in making paint. GW could simply work on that new formulation and all would be well.
The change I see coming is fundamental - it attacks their "hobby" core.
I agree with those statements above about GW. But if they can no longer sell the "hobby" then they don't have a lock on a niche market any longer. They will only be able to cater to collectors and painters who might also be gamers. I suspect that the far larger customer base are gamers who buy loads of models to play with. As an aside, they also paint them.
So if somebody can come along and offer up nicely painted minis, gamers who want the beautiful gametable (filled with nice terrain and painted minis) NOW rather than a year from now after painting 200 figures for 12 months may be tempted to try that other game.
For GW to change (and I agree they have the money to adapt) they would need to change their mindset. From "complete hobby" to "game maker". They can keep their paint and brush line for sure, but their focus will need to shift to playing games, not modeling and painting minis.
Think about a typical issue of White Dwarf. Beyond all the articles that are really just advertising glitz for whatever the latest release is, most of the articles fall into the "How to paint (troop type name here)" rather than "Strategy for the Undead Hordes".
Like I said, it's a total focus shift, away from the full hobby, directly onto gameplay. Prepainted minis cries out for that level of support. Imagine a White Dwarf with scenario articles, and campaign play. WIth articles on how to take a pre-paint and "make it your own by adding a few touches". Strategy guides for new generals, etc.
GW can't go at it half-heartedly. And as I said above, I don't see how the current management team can do it at all and retain any credibility. They need to leave, and let a new team take over. Of course, why would they want to leave? They won't.
I think their fiscal 2007 will be bad, just like 2005 and 2006. When their sales dip below the 100M mark (down from 150M in only three years) I suspect the shareholders will speak up, and the board of directors will make moves to replace key individuals. Then they can give it a shot.
They have the talented people to pull it off and better still, they have the delivery mechanism. They already have their own stores, they run tournaments, and they have a magazine devoted to their minis. But making the leap to pre-paints isn't something I think they are ready for. Their mind-set, their focus, is still "hobby".
So Count ... I'm not sure I disagree with you too much. I don't think they will lose their core audience of painters and collectors. But I do see (have been watching them actually) lose a portion of their former audience that was comprised of gamers. Some of those gamers have discovered other games that are just as cool to play but cheaper. I think they will continue to lose gamers to other games, ESPECIALLY once pre-paints hit the streets.
Can GW make the shift? Absolutely. But I don't think they have suffered enough yet to want to change. I think they are making excuses for their drop in sales. Some reasons are valid, but others are I feel just wishful thinking. I don't see them tanking. But I think they have some painful years ahead as their wider customer base gets whittled down to just the rock-solid core fans. Rebuilding that empire will be a bitch.
Last edited by SeattleGamer on 01-10-2007, 11:11 AM, edited 1 time in total.
Sky Captian Joined: 08-03-2005, 10:45 AM Posts: 2378 Location: Seattle, WA (Ruins of Mega-City Two)
For me, $5 is about the max I look at paying for a mini... sometimes you have to pay that much to get those super cool imports from the UK (Hasslefree, Heresy, etc.). But although GW prices are high, there are certainly not the highest out there. I am still astonished whenever I see the Infinity minis which go for around $10 each! They look interesting, but I'll never buy them at that price.
If the sculpt was a good quality and interesting. So for me the question more becomes is the model worth $5 a pop? Sadly, the answer is no. Maybe for some of the older stuff, but not for the more recent sculpts.
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