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| Business Number Crunching http://worldworksgames.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=691 |
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| Author: | johnnygs [ 08-06-2004, 11:19 PM ] |
| Post subject: | Business Number Crunching |
Business Number Crunching Being a former engineer and now financial number cruncher I couldn't help but do a little mathematical analysis on WorldWorksGames output, and thought I would share a few numbers with you all (this includes all sets from Castleworks to Siegeworks): PRICES Using release prices (not sales), the cheapest set was $10 (Castles & Keeps), the most expensive $20 (Skull Cove), and the average price per set was $14.75. Taking sale prices into account (three sets have had the price drop since release, including Chunky Dungeons which was originally priced at $18 and then went on sale the next day at $15), the cheapest is $5 (Castleworks), and the average price per set drops to $13.08. PIECES PER SET The average number of pieces per set (using an average of all preceding sets to give a number to the Maiden, which has no number listed) is 62; leaving off the Maiden (no number given) and Skull Cove (too many pieces) and Castleworks (too few pieces), the average number of pieces is 52. The fewest number of pieces is 8 (Castleworks), the largest is 197 (Skull Cove). AVERAGE PRICE PER PIECE The total price of all sets (release prices) is $177.00; the total number of pieces is 740 (Maiden assumption still applies as an average number of pieces, until better data is given). Using these numbers, the average price per piece is $0.24, and the average number of pieces per dollar is 4.18. This averages over the lifetime of WorldWorksGames as a company and, I believe, is a very representative way of doing the calculation. Doing this last set of calculations over taking the three sets into account which have had price drops since release gives a total price of $157.00, average price per piece $0.21, and average number of pieces per dollar of 4.71. MOST EXPENSIVE PER PIECE, CHEAPEST PER PIECE Most expensive set? Castleworks cost $1.88 per piece at release and now $0.63 per piece. After that Pubworks comes in at $0.50 per piece and then Siegeworks at $0.38 per piece. Cheapest set? Do I need to say it? Skull Cove costs $0.10 per piece (197 pieces you know). After that Villageworks costs $0.18 per piece and then Arenaworks costs $0.19 per piece. (Remember, these numbers don't take into account the fact that you buy the first one and print as many as you want after that, nor are materials and labor taken into account. Also, anecdotally from the forums it looks like the Maiden, slightly below average in terms of cost at release, is the most expensive to build in terms of paper and ink, or so they say.) RELEASE TIMES As far as release times (since we all complain about that constantly), considering that Denny started his business in October 2002 and we are in August 2004, that's 22 months. There have been 12 releases to date, giving an figure of 0.55 releases per month or 1.83 months between releases, on average. If we get to September with no more releases, that will change to 0.52 and 1.92, respectively, and if we get to October (two year anniversary) with no more releases, that will change to 0.5 releases per month and 2 months per release. If we have one more release by September or October, those figures change to either 0.57/1.77 or 0.54/1.85, and if we have two more releases by October (have to make some assumptions here) those figures change to 0.58/1.71 (remember, that's releases per month/months per release). PRODUCTIVITY WWG most productive period measured this way was June 2003 through November 2003, with five sets released in six months, for an average of 0.83 sets per month or 1.2 months per set. WWG's annual record breaks down to: 2002: 2 sets in 3 months (Oct to Dec) = 0.67 sets per month or 1.5 months per set. 2003: 6 sets in 12 months = 0.5 sets per month or 2 months per set 2004 to date: 4 sets in 8 months = the same, 0.5 sets per month or 2 months per set. If we assume that Castleworks Ultimate and Spaceworks: First Light are the only two releases coming for the rest of the year (I think that's a safe assumption, and frankly they are all that's left as of today on the WIP meter, so we have to go with something here), then by the end of 2004 those numbers change to 6 sets in 12 months and we have 0.5 sets per month or 2 months per set, just like in 2003. Quickest back-to-back releases were Nov/Dec 2002, June/July/Aug 2003, and March/April 2004. Worst dry spell was nothing released after November 2003 until March 2004, three release-less months. (Whew, getting sweaty cranking all these numbers!) PRICING TRENDS Pricing trends: first four sets were released at $15 each. Altogether seven sets were released at that price, which is 7/12 = 58.33%. Three sets were released at prices lower than $15, and two sets at prices higher than $15. The average price per set at release time, recall, was $14.75. The average price now (including sales), recall, is $13.08 (which is 88.7% of the average release price). If I dare say it, pricing when you look at it this way is all over the map and a trend over time is hard to identify and hard to quantify. Price per development time? Can't tell. Per piece? Too variable. We can't be sure what the business pricing model is, so any assumptions are subject to speculation and open for discussion. All I guess I can say is that pricing has basically held pretty steady over the nearly two years of WWG's existence, which is pretty remarkable for any industry. Average 2002 price was $15 per set (nothing was on sale yet), average 2003 price was $13.67 per set released in 2003 and $11.88 per all the sets (taking sales into account), and average 2004 price is $16.25 per set released in 2004 (oops, way above average) and $13.08 per all the sets (taking sales into account, and once more oops, above 2003's average but below the overall rrelease average). So looking at those numbers I guess there is a slight upward trend in pricing over 2003 and 2004. CONCLUSIONS NOW: All this goes to show that to date WWG's set release price is $14.75 on average (remember, this doesn't include tax or the price of materials and labor). The average time for releases is 1.83 months (just 7.93 weeks or 55.51 days). Average price per piece is $0.24 (less than a quarter) or about 4.18 pieces per dollar. The pricing trend has been inching up slightly but, to date, the average price per set is still only $13.08 including sale prices. What drove me to do all this calculating and speculating? Love of course. I love what WWG is doing and think that's worth pondering! |
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| Author: | Gamesmith Denny [ 08-07-2004, 12:21 AM ] |
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| Author: | Conaill [ 08-07-2004, 06:32 AM ] |
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You may want to do a similar analysis doing *pages* instead of pieces, because that might be a better measure of the amount of work (and the amount of value to the customer) that goes into a set. What is considered a "piece" can vary drastically from set to set, and even within a set. I'm guessing there's no piece count given for the Maiden, because it's really just one huge "piece"! |
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| Author: | johnnygs [ 08-07-2004, 06:59 AM ] |
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| Author: | emmagine [ 08-07-2004, 09:44 AM ] |
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| Author: | johnnygs [ 08-07-2004, 10:21 AM ] |
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| Author: | emmagine [ 08-07-2004, 10:26 AM ] |
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